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What is variance and a "downswing" in simple terms: how not to lose motivation
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What is variance and a "downswing" in simple terms: how not to lose motivation

Poker is a game where mathematical strategy and chance go hand in hand. Even a perfectly played hand sometimes ends in defeat, while a win can come at a moment when the odds were minimal. This is exactly how variance manifests — the deviation of your actual result from what you expect over the long run. Understanding variance helps you avoid tilt, stay motivated, and make decisions with a clear head. In this article, we'll break down in simple terms what variance and a downswing are, why they happen even to professional players, and what to do so that a losing streak doesn't throw you off balance.

Илья Мельников · December 2, 2025

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